Kwi US Oil: ngexabiso, ukukhula umthamo, okuhambisa

Ukuba ujonga kwimarike ioli ihlabathi lunqgukuva, sinako ngokukhuselekileyo bathi US nguye lizwe kuphela ehlabathini, nto leyo eye esebenzayo imithombo shale. Amanye amazwe baye bazishiya elide le mbono, kuba ndikugqala lutho yaye zibiza imali. Active kwimveliso ye-oyile eUnited States laqala ngo-2014 phakathi kwasehlotyeni. iinzame ngaphambili ukuphuhlisa iidipozithi amafutha ePoland yaye iHungary, kodwa bonke boyisakala. amathuba Great eyabelwe eUkraine, kodwa nguye kuphela kule projekthi ye-2018.

Iiprojekthi ye-shale US

Imveliso US of oli shale uye wenyukela 2014. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, iiprojekthi US ngu-10% yemveliso amafutha lwehlabathi. Buyela ngo-2005 phezu kummandla uRhulumente ukuqulunqa umyalelo yezigidi 7.5 emilambo yeoli, yaye ngowe-2014 esi salathisi yafikelela ixabiso imiphanda 9 million. Ngokuchasene imvelaphi 90 million imiphanda, apho onke amazwe misela kunye, ixabiso ibaluleke kakhulu. Kungenxa yobu budlelane obuphakathi kwaye abe azisebenzisele ukuba kwabeka ukwehla okukhulu kwexabiso "ngegolide black".

Yintoni amaxabiso amafutha kwi orhwebo lwe-oyile kuqinisekisa inzuzo kuphuhliso amandla kwi US?

kwi US iindleko zokuvelisa oyile yohluka kakhulu ngokwengingqi. Iindleko zokuphuhlisa umthombo kuchaphazela ubunzulu elivela kuzo amafutha kunye nokufumaneka kwamanzi acocekileyo. Ekuqaleni 2005, inkampani avareji ngokukodwa ekuveliseni amafutha shale, unako ukufikelela kwinqanaba ngaphandle umonakalo ngeendleko yokugqibela kwi nemakethe $ 75 umphanda. Kunyaka odlulileyo ukuya kwimveliso US ukuba ibe nenzuzo, kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe akufanele, awe ngezantsi iirandi 57. Kukho imimandla, ezifana North Dokota apho ukutsalwa abase iindleko-olusebenzayo ngexabiso $ 42 nangaphantsi. Imveliso US of oli-shale kwisithili Mackenzie Iindleko $ kuphela 24. Ukuba ugcine zonke izibonisi kunye, kuba kucacile ukuba ingxenye ioli of America uyakwazi ukumelana hayi njengoko drawdowns kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe. Enoba kuphuhliswa njani le meko, abaphuhlisi ioli ube zabo-10% yexabiso umphanda nganye. Confidence yenza into yokuba iindleko "igolide black" ayibandakanyi irhafu kunye ekhaya, ababengathanga kuzimbi amazwe form-60% yexabiso lesakhelo. Kutheni kunjalo? Impela nje, irhafu US kushishino lwamandla nje ityala.

Ohamba "shale revolution '?

Shale revolution e IMelika amathuba elungileyo. Oku kubangelwa ikakhulu yokuba imveliso oyile kwi US sele ziba nexabiso eliphantsi. Ukuhamba ngayo, hayi kuphela uphuhliso iidipozithi ezintsha, kodwa ukwazisana inkqubo yokuphuhlisa iiteknoloji ezintsha zamafutha. Ngokutsho izibalo preliminary, kwixa elizayo mali ukuhamba ngenye kwenkonzo kuhambe kakuhle ayikwazanga kungancitshiswa ngama- 40%. Okuhambisa ezikhulayo kwimveliso oyile US ngenxa ezichaphazela lo mthetho. Iinkampani ezisebenza kule ndawo, akaqhotyoshelwanga irhafu, ngenxa yokuba kude kube ngoku, esi icandelo awuthunyelwanga ingqalelo ithemba. Imarike esilawulwa ziinkampani ezincinane, sizimisele ukunyusa ingeniso yabo simquqele kuqwalaselwe iindlela zemveliso. Bakwasebenzisa eyabo kwicala lophuhliso.

Projections ukuba elizayo

Lukhulu kule kwimveliso ye-oyile US ngo-2015-2016, ngokutsho abahlalutyi, kuya kwandisa kuphela. Nkqu ukuwa kwamaxabiso zorhwebo lehlabathi 60% zange kuchaphazela le meko kunye namathemba. Energy elifutshane yangaphambili ye elifutshane Energy Outlook of arhente ngobukhulu kweli lizwe kukuba nethemba. Lowo uthetha ngenjongo kukarhulumente ukwaphula iingxelo zalo. Umthamo ubuninzi kwimveliso ye-oyile eUnited States zabhalwa ngo-1970 kwi-9,6 sezigidi nemigqomo. EIA ngokuzithemba ithi kuyimfuneko ukuba alinde ukwandisa imveliso amafutha volume 600 kweetoni eziliwaka embindini ka-2015 kunye nasekuqaleni kuka-2016 - ngo amawaka 200 imiphanda ngosuku.

Ngaloo tycoons oyile count?

Nangona imveliso oyile eUnited States yindlela esebenzayo, nemibono amathemba elizayo iinkampani neoli yahlulwa phakathi abanini. Ezinye iinkampani bayeka okwethutyana uphuhliso iidiphozithi ezintsha wanqunyanyiswa uphando, abanye banethemba kwaye siqinisekile ngekamva, bengathembeli ngokululama lemarike iindleko zepetroli lingaphantsi kwe ukuba ixabiso $ 100.

Bright elizayo icela into yokuba Melika uza ukuze abantu abaphumayo ekuxhomekekeni oyile yehlabathi. Ukuba ngo-2005 eli lizwe uthembele ioli kubathengisi nge-60%, ngoko ngo-2011 eli nani yawa kwi-42%. Intsingiselo ayikatshintshi, yaye namhlanje, yaye vice versa - liye landa. Abavelisi bangaqhubeka bathembele imfuno ioli sikarhulumente. Nokuba kuya kuba kunokwenzeka ukuba baqonde amafutha kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe, iya kuhamba ngaphantsi kwe ngesando kurhwebo lwasekhaya.

Yintoni abahlaziyi bathi?

Ngokutsho abahlaziyi, ngo-2015 ixabiso ka Brent ekrwada uya kuyeka phakathi iidola 58 umphanda. Sase- 2016 nokuba banethemba ngaphezulu. Xa iindleko zemveliso oli US iya kunyothulwa ngumntu wesithathu, ixabiso layo market kwafikelela 75 zeerandi. umthombo wamandla of WTI uya malini, ngokulandelelana, $ 55 no 72. Iingcali orhwebo lwe-oyile bayavuma ukuba iindleko "ngegolide abamnyama 'ukuya kwinqanaba langoku ixesha phantsi kakhulu. Kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo, ixabiso akayi kuba nako ukufikelela kweli qondo of $ 100. Loo meko kubonakala kukho ukulibaziseka kule minyaka ilishumi. kwi Growing kwimveliso ye-oyile US abakwazi ukugubungela ibango. Inani zobuchwepheshe, efuna amafutha, ukwanda ngokucwangcisiweyo. entengo okwethutyana ezinxulumene kokoma ekuphuhliseni uqoqosho kumazwe amaninzi. Kamsinya nje imeko babuyela esiqhelweni, akayi kuphela kuphunyezwa kodwa mhlawumbi bayaphule $ 100 kumda.

orhwebo lwe-oyile US

US uziva siqinisekile kwimarike yehlabathi kunye imizamo OPEC angamalungu ukuba kuchithwe okhuphisana ukusuka ukusilela niche isithsaba. Njengoko ukuhla imfuno, ngaphambili kwasekwa inxalenye enkulu of America, kuyanda ubonelelo. Ngenxa yoko, amaxabiso epetroli uyawa. Le meko kubizwa ngokuba amalinge knock out abadlali ezibuthathaka zorhwebo. Kubalulekile ukuphawula nje kuphela ukukhula kwimveliso ye-oyile kwi-US, kodwa kwakhona indawo neAfrika. Ngomhla kwintsimi bume urhulumente olunokhuphiswano kwaye simahla ukwenza ushishino kwicandelo eneji. Xa abadlali ezincinane, kwaye isininzi, abe isandla free. Yeyona ukunyaniseka kaRhulumente ivumela urhulumente ukuba sime ngokuzithemba ngeenyawo nakumaxesha anzima ezinjalo. Impembelelo ye-US kwi imeko lukhula siyabulela kuye ukwandisa ngendlela oovimba bayo 'ngegolide black ".

Sizoku lwisana kumazwe lwehlabathi iphawulwe idabi ebalulekileyo, imveliso oyile eUnited States. itshathi ixabiso abangaboni ibonisa ukuba urhulumente abunjwe ngokupheleleyo kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe oyile. Kuba okokuqala kwiminyaka emininzi kumazwe OPEC neRashiya uya kuba okhuphisanayo befanelekile. Ukuba ngaphambili uRhulumente wabenzela izinto zayo kwaye wenze izigqibo kuthathelwa ingqalelo kuphela nkqubo iingenelo zayo ngoku kufuneka hlaziya ngokupheleleyo. Kuphela ngale ndlela kuya kuba lula balance uzinzo ingxenye oyile.

isibuko eqiniseka

America akuyi nje kuqhwithela orhwebo lwe-oyile, kuba wayemana enyusa ngasemva. Ngoko ke, commercial oovimba oyile bahambelana umthamo wempahla net kummandla iintsuku ezingaphezu 164. NgoDisemba 2013, eli nani wayelingana imini 171, yaye ngowe-2007 phambi kokuba crisis - iintsuku 80. Iintengo eCanada kunye Mexico kweli xabiso ayiqukwanga. Ngenxa yoko izinga uyanda kumaxabiso iintsuku 279. Kwaye ukuba uthatha ingqalelo kuphela oovimba zorhwebo kodwa qhinga, eli nani ngokuzenzekela kuba ulingana iintsuku 450. Le njengesikhuseli obutofotofo yokhuselo ukuba ugcine uqoqosho lwelizwe nkqu supply iziphazamiso. Angaba umfutho ukuhla kwamaxabiso oyile emakethe zomhlaba usezantsi kakhulu kwinani kanye $ 47 kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo. Njengengubo kokuwa kuqikelelo lwemozulu phakathi spring 2015.