Kutheni namafutha engabizi? Sase- amaxabiso oyile

Ekuqaleni kowe-2014, abantu abaninzi ngakumbi baqala ukuzibuza kutheni ioli enganeno. Ukuqala ukususela ngoSeptemba 5 ukuya amaxabiso zonke iibrand zamafutha waqalisa ukuba lehle. Le kuqhubeka namhlanje. Imbali ibonisa ukuba ngexesha yemarike oyile kumazwe ngamazwe yaba ngumba ibalulekile ekukhuleni kunye ukuhla kwamaxabiso, kuquka abo esidalwe ngumntu. Autumn 2014 ayigqitywanga hayi ngenye yezi ziganeko zembali.

Ntoni eli bali?

Le grafu amaxabiso oyile amaxesha ngamaxesha lujika ngokukhawuleza kwicala efanayo kulo imbali yonke ubukho imarike. Omnye ugqaliselo kwenzeka ngonyaka phambi kokuqala i-Gulf War. Nangona ixabiso indawo ye ngeoli 18,05 kuphela eerandi. Ngexesha lemfazwe, ixabiso leoli brand "Brent" ufikelele kwinqanaba $ 29, yaye ngelo xesha Incopho yembali kwi $ 41,5. An into umdla kukuba, ukuba imini ngaphambi kokuqhambuka kwemfazwe, yaye ngosuku olulandelayo emva kokuphela esemthethweni, iindleko zamafutha leyo efana - to eerandi 19,93 umphanda. iimeko ezifanayo zenzeke kwixesha Islamic Revolution e Iran ngexesha ye Iran-Iraq imfazwe, ngexesha lokudodobala koqoqosho Asia kwaye kwimfazwe yesibini Iraq. Ngo September 2014 akazange athembise ukuwa okukhulu. Kanye ngonyaka ngamnye, kwisiqalo-Agasti, ixabiso yawa ngoSeptemba. Ukuhla wayengekho kakhulu, 4.5% kuphela.

ukugxuma

Ukuwa 4.5% kwaqhubeka ngo-Oktobha, kwaye umbuzo malunga kutheni namhlanje kukufumana ioli atshiphu, kwaye okwangoku esasebenza. Xa phakathi ukuwa kwamaxabiso e-oli zibe kwinqanaba zeerandi 86,4 umphanda, abahlalutyi baqalisa ukuba angakhathazeki. Oku kungenxa yokuba ihlabathi akukho zinto zifuneka kuqala zoqoqosho azizange ngenxa yale meko. Uqoqosho amazwe lehlabathi, nangona kwakukho ukuhla, kodwa ubunzima bafa okanye umnxeba ukuba yingxaki kakhulu. Le omncinane ngoxa eliphezulu ngenxa kwinqanaba yanamhlanje nangamanani gqbl rekdiwe ngo-2010 emva kwentlekele-2008 ngonyaka. amajelo eendaba ehlabathi siqale ngenkuthalo ukwenza ingxelo ukuba ityala imeko ukuphululwa kwimarike ngentsimbi US. Kwenzeka ntoni enyanisweni, akunakwenzeka ukuba bathi kanye, kodwa abezoqoqosho bahlule izinto ezininzi ezibalulekileyo okanye iziganeko.

shale ubhedu

Eziliqela iingcali behlabathi wathi oyile iwela ixabiso ngenxa ifihlwe ngenyameko iindleko ezizizo zophuhliso oyile ye-shale eUnited States. Iindleko yokuphuhlisa zezimbiwa ungaphantsi kakhulu kunoko wabhengezwa kuluntu. Kule nkomfa Geneva, abameli beenkampani yeoli ezinkulu ezifana Morgan Stanley, Eagle Ford kunye Barclays Plc., Wathi iindleko zokuvelisa shale zixutyiwe ziyahluka ukusuka-30 ukuya kuma-60 eerandi umphanda nganye. Oku kubonisa ukuba ixabiso "zegolide abamnyama" kwimarike yehlabathi akuyonto ibalulekileyo. Kwakhona kwenziwe uthelekelelo ukuba Oktobha ukwehla kwexabiso kufuneka iphele kungekudala. Ngelishwa, uqikelelo ixabiso ioli kube njalo.

Ukuphululwa OPEC

Inyanga yesibini, nto leyo eyakhokelela ekubeni iinkxalabo malunga umbuzo wokuba kutheni zitshiphu yeoli - nto ingalingani ngenxa ezivenkileni. Kukuninzi kwi kwimarike yehlabathi uhamba "igolide abamnyama 'abasuka Iran. Ukuhanjiswa evela Latin America kunye Afrika baqalisa ukuba babe nenxaxheba ebalulekileyo zemalike. ukugcinwa Policy kwamaxabiso oyile ngokunciphisa umthamo yayo imveliso iye ngokucacile yaliwe amazwe OPEC. A indima enkulu inkangeleko sisibonelelo enkulu ukudlala izohlwayo ukuba EU waphakamisa kunye inqanawa Iranian inkampani NITC inkulu. I-EU ngenkuthalo lixhasa Tehran, nayo leyo yenye kubathengisi ezinkulu. Kwamafutha sele sifakiwe kwi emarikeni kbavelisi US. Ukuze athi ngaphezulu, kwiminyaka yakutshanje kuye imali izixa ezikhulu asethi US kwicandelo lezemigodi amazwe afana noMzantsi Sudan, Chad, Equatorial Guinea kunye Mozambique.

Wokuqhuba neoli market US

Iingcali ezininzi uyazibuza ukuba kutheni na oyile atshiphu, chaza ngocwangcisa jikelele Melika kwimarike ininzi kakhulu zamafutha. Icandelo le-National Reserve yabekelwa ukuthengisa ngenxa yophuhliso shale zamaxabiso aphantsi. Emva kokuba Melika iye yakhetha intengiso enjalo Canada, eyaqala ukulwela asethi zabo kwi-Arctic, akuba eqale uphuhliso imimandla. Kufuneka athi malunga ukulungiselela unyulo lukaMongameli Obama ngo-2017, nto leyo ebonisa kumgaqo-nkqubo walo ngokunxulumene orhwebo lwe-oyile kumazwe ngamazwe.

Ingxelo eziphosakeleyo

Namhlanje, ioli lihla ixabiso, yaye ngenxa yokuba phakathi ekwindla 2014, abaninzi abarhwebi kulindeleke ukuba abuyele kwamaxabiso oyile emva kokuwa. Xa sezulu yayo labahlalutyi ihlabathi bakucaphukele ukusuka neengcamango ngquzulwano noluntu kwihlabathi Arab kunye ulahlekelwe. ngolwazi olububuxoki malunga ukutshatyalaliswa kweendlela zothutho kunye neendawo zemveliso amafutha kumazwe Arabhu akazange adlale ezandleni beyifuna. Endaweni ukukhula okulindelekileyo terminal ukutshatyalaliswa e Iraq kunye Libya ayizange yenzeke. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, akukho ngoku asisebenzi sodwa, kodwa ezimbini iziko kumazwe angaphandle. Le mfazwe ukuze ungabinako kakubi ushishino oyile negesi.

Yena ngenkuthalo ekusukeleni amalungelo alo kunye kumazwe oyile सुटणें ugwetyelo liqikelelwa kwi $ 4 billion. Iintsilelo kunye izama ukunqanda amajelo amanzi Iran yaphela ukusilela. Ngehlobo lowe-2013 kuye kwavakaliswa ulongamo kumahlelo Arab Caliphate, ekuthe emarikeni uthuthwa "Ekhohlo" ioli. imfundo State yavusa kuphela zothutho ukuya eYurophu of semi-zomthetho mthethweni oyile enexabiso.

Tshintsha indlela

Le grafu amaxabiso oyile uqhubekela ezantsi ngenxa utshintsho kweendlela yayo yohanjiso. Attack imikhosi US kwi Syria yaqinisa kwicala Turkish of ezithumela ngaphandle Iraq. Phantsi cover nokulwa Khilafah intshabalalo ukufumene izicokisi malunga 27 enkulu yezityalo waseSiriya. Ngenxa yoko, Syria ushiye uluhlu kubathengisi eziphambili epetroli ukususela Iraq. indawo yayo yathathwa yi kumazwe nemveliso kakhulu afana सुटणें ugwetyelo ne Turkey. namalungiselelo Okuninzi elilungileyo ukuvuselela ukuhla kwamaxabiso ehlabathini. ubonelelo amafutha ngalinye amazwe Iraq enesiqingatha amaxesha izabelo ezingakumbi, nto leyo Russia. Ukuwa amaxabiso oyile liya kuqhubeka ngenxa yokhuphiswano olukhulu phakathi kwamazwe. Ukunciphisa le nkqubo ixabiso, ngabathengisi ezinkulu, ingakumbi OPEC, iceba ezityhafileyo zonke okhuphisana.

Ungquzulwano phakathi America neRashiya

Iingcali abaninzi baye bazama ukuba bachaze ukuba kutheni eRashiya ufumana ioli atshiphu, khumbula ukuba 'imfazwe lokulayita "yangaphambili phakathi Melika naseRashiya. Izohlwayo ebekelwa kwizizathu ungquzulwano zomkhosi Ukraine, abazange zinamandla ngokwaneleyo kwaye uqoqosho Russian sele ungandivumeli. Ukuqashisela kubonisa ukuzama ukuphembelela izenzo urhulumente Russian ngokulawula kwamaxabiso e-oli ehlabathini. Ukunciphisa iindleko zamafutha kukhokelela ekuthotyweni yengeniso yombuso ngokwalo dollar. Ngenxa yoko, imali engange ngokuchasene dollar buthathaka. uqoqosho lwelizwe luya engakwazi sixhase ishishini lemigodi-mali olufanelekileyo. I-bethana kule ngqikelelo kuphela ukuba ukuhla kwamaxabiso oyile abachaphazelekayo kuphela Russian, kodwa eUnited States, ezinye izizwe ezininzi.

izinto Secondary lehle oyile

Ishedyuli amaxabiso yeoli ebonisa wokuhla, kungekuphela nje ngenxa ezifihlakeleyo kwi Ekuqaleni, imiba yezoqoqosho. Direction baqinisekise iziphumo ezininzi eziziisekondari:

• ukutshintsha kwemozulu ehlabathini.
• ukufikelela yokukhangela lula ukuba kwiinkalo ezintsha Arctic.
• Okungeyomfuneko Fukushima syndrome kwicandelo eneji. igesi Markets neoli aye anda kakhulu imithamo.
• Uphuhliso Active ngobuchwepheshe yokuphinda ioli, ukufuna ezahlukeneyo ezizezinye zophuhliso entsimini.

Kwenzeka ntoni emva koko?

uluvo nengcali umbuzo kutheni yeoli atshiphu, kancinane babephikisana ngenxa imeko yezoqoqosho ehlabathini kunye nokwahlula elikhutheleyo orhwebo lwe-oyile ehlabathini. Kulo mzekelo, uninzi abadlali swi zihambe kakuhle le meko. Kulo mba, wavakalisa abaninzi kubathengisi ezinkulu ebutyebini uluvo. Ekubeni amaxabiso namhlanje amafutha, iingcali benze isaziso malunga $ 55:

• Ukuze ixabiso kwi $ 60 nabavumayo abahlalutyi ihlabathi, i-oyile kunye neenkampani zabacebisi, iingcali zithi.
• US Energy Inkcazelo Administration, ebizwa ngokupheleleyo iindleko zamafutha Umphanda $ 58 zeerandi ngo January.
• I-arhente "Prime", udliwano abahlalutyi malunga 150, unika sase- wakhe amaxabiso oyile. Bona kwangaphambili utshintsho ixabiso umphanda ukusuka iidola-50 ukuya kuma-80.
• Umhlaziyi inkampani eyaziwayo "Goldman Sachs" ukumiswa lentelekelelo of $ 50.
• Bank of America Merrill Lynch yi ukubheja ixabiso zeerandi ezingama-40 umphanda.
• UMongameli Lukoil alile iindleko zamafutha kwi $ 60 umphanda.
• Morgan Stanley iingcali zibonisa ukuba lokuqala - kwikota yesibini ka-2015 amaxabiso oli iya kugcinwa ngaphakathi $ 57. Kulo mzekelo, kwikota yesithathu neyesine kunyaka, ngokutsho abameli inkampani, uthembisa Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso iimveliso zepetroliyam ixabiso $ 70.
• iibhanki Swiss ufuna kwi imeko kunye bonke abanethemba. Bakholelwa amanani petroleum ebekwe kwi-70 - 85 zeerandi.

Nangona ukwala iinkampani ezininzi oyile ezinkulu zehlabathi ngezicwangciso zabo neeprojekthi, nolindelo sisenethemba kakhulu. Nangona inkqubo engqongqo kwicala OPEC, uninzi iingcali kuqhelekile ukucinga ukuba kungekudala imeko ilungelelaniswe kwi kwimarike oli ehlabathini, yaye zonke ilahleko ekungenwe kuzo zombini amazwe kunye neenkampani ngamnye liya kuba nako kwakhona. Okwangoku, isiqhelo abawayo, yaye kutheni neoli ezitshiphu namhlanje, akukho namnye uya kwenza ukucacisa.