Okulindelekileyo norhwebo kwi istock exchange

Ingeniso median yekhasino aqhelekileyo xa ubukhulu ufana kuphela isivuno imicimbi engekenziwa kwi-Wall Street. kudala abantu Smart baye baqaphela ukuba umntu akakwazi kuhlala bathembele luck yakho kwaye baqalise ukusebenzisa iindlela manani ukufumana uzinzo holo.

Casino ufumana isixa esikhulu ngenxa yokuba i "amathuba" okanye, ngamanye amazwi, Ithemba lo mdlalo ecaleni kwendlu gembula. Nokuba kukweyiphi na apho umdlalo inxaxheba, kungekudala yekhasino, uya kuphumelela. Casino inzuzo ezikhula ngokukhawuleza, ukuba uluhlu imidlalo abo nesiphumo kwixesha ngokukhawuleza kakhulu - roulette, craps okanye amakhadi ngaphezulu.

Ndicinga na umrhwebi baphumelele kumsebenzi eyimfuneko ukusombulula ezi njongo ibalulekileyo:

1. Ukuqinisekisa ukuba inani transactions ngempumelelo ngaphezulu iimpazamo ayisoze miscalculations.

2. Yenza indlela yakho zorhwebo ukuze ithuba lokuba bafumane kangangoko kwakunokwenzeka.

3. Ukuze kuphunyezwe iziphumo ezizinzileyo ezintle imisebenzi yayo.

Kunye nabarhwebi apha senza, uncedo angaba kulindelekileyo. Eli gama theory amathuba yenye isitshixo. Ingasetyenziswa ukunika i-avareji ingqikelelo ethile ixabiso ejikelezayo. Ulindelo yezibalo of a random variable, ngathi embindini womxhuzulane, ukuba simele sicinge zonke lwenzekile oku kunokwenzeka ayalingana ezinobunzima obahlukeneyo.

Ngokumalunga isicwangciso sorhwebo ukuvavanya ukusebenza yayo evame ukusebenzisa okulindelekileyo yenzuzo (okanye ilahleko). Le parameter umiselwa lodibaniso iimveliso inzuzo kunye nelahleko ezithile amanqanaba kunye baphicothwa zabo nasisihlo. Umzekelo, esi sicwangciso kuphuhliswa urhwebo icebisa ukuba 37% kuzo zonke iintengiselwano baya kuzisa ingeniso, kwaye abanye - 63% - luya kuba azincedi lutho. Kwangaxeshanye, ingeniso avareji zenkqubo uphumelele $ 7, kwaye ilahleko umlinganiselo ilingana no 1.4 zeerandi. Thina ubale ukulindela yorhwebo inkqubo enjalo:

MO = 7 x 0.37 + (0.63 x (-1,4)) = 2,59 - 0.882 = 1.708

Yintoni na le nombolo? Ithi, elandela imigaqo nkqubo, nge-avareji siya kufumana 1.708 zeerandi evela ukuthenga ngakunye ivaliwe.

Ekubeni kwisiphumo se uvavanyo lwe xlikhulu khulu kuno zero, inkqubo enjalo zingasetyenziswa ngokupheleleyo ukuba ndingenza umsebenzi obhadlileyo. Ukuba iziphumo yokubala ithemba lokufumana kakubi, loo nto sele ukuthetha malunga ilahleko avareji kwaye norhwebo iya kukhokelela ekonakaleni.

Imali yenzuzo intengiselwano ngamnye kwakhona yabonisa ukuxabiseka eluhlobo%. Umzekelo:

• ipesenti yengeniso 1 usebenziswano - 5%;
• ipesenti imisebenzi yorhwebo ngempumelelo - 62%;
• ipesenti ukulahleka transaction 1 - 3%;
• ipesenti imisebenzi yokulahlekelwa - 38%;

Kulo mzekelo, imali ukulindela (5% x 62% - 3% x 38%) / 100 = (310% - 114%) / 100 = 1.96%. Oko kukuthi, intengiselwano avareji kuzisa 1,96%.

Kuyenzeka ukuba kuqulunqwe inkqubo nangona ukuxhaphaka imisebenzi ukulahlekelwa uya kuyinika iziphumo ezidibanisayo, ngokuba MO yayo> 0.

Nangona kunjalo, a kulindelekileyo ezimbalwa. Kunzima ukwenza ukuba le nkqubo unika Imiqondiso encinane kakhulu zorhwebo. Kulo mzekelo, kuya kuvelisa abamelwe umdla bank. Vumela ukusebenza nganye inika umlinganiselo 0.5 kuphela zeerandi, kodwa kuthini ukuba le nkqubo ifuna imisebenzi 1000 ngonyaka ngamnye? Esi sixa esinzulu gqitha ngexeshana nje elingephi. Oku kulandela ngokusengqiqweni ukuba olunye uphawu inkqubo yorhwebo elungileyo kungathathwa nje Hold Indawo elifutshane.

Ukuba ufuna ukuqonda nzulu imathematika of ithuba, ubone ukuba yintoni na elindelwe enemiqathango, nokuthembeka , kunye nezinye izixhobo umdla, siphakamisa ukufunda incwadi ethi "Izibalo Kubarhwebi" (umbhali S.Bulashev). Ngubani na owaziyo, mhlawumbi yezithuthi chaos lwemali emva kokufunda le ncwadi iza kukubonisa nje unohlobo ukuze ...