Ingcamango iirhafu kunye nemirhumo, nenyaniso yayo inguqu kuqoqosho

Uphuhliso yanamhlanje ubuchule Uhlalutyo lwezoqoqosho zezibalo nga ngokuthembekileyo ukuhlola imifuziselo prognostic kwaye uthathwa lweenkqubo ngentshukumo ukucacisa imbono irhafu kunye umrhumo inguqu kuqoqosho. Ngoko ke akukho ngozi lo oqosho mihla kusetyenziswa njengesixhobo ukuxhasa okanye aphikise ezinye izikhundla theoretical component.

Kwilizwe ingcamango qoqosho phambili iingqiqo ezininzi ezinxulumene irhafu kunye nemiba yeziphumo yerhafu, yaye kongezwe ecacisa gca ukuba yintoni eyenza ingqikelelo irhafu kunye nenyaniso yayo imifanekiso ezahlukeneyo kuqoqosho. Ukungqinelana ingcamango kwezoqoqosho neoclassical kwi 70s. ngekhulu XX. Waba ingcamango yokuba ubonelelo. abalandeli yayo - uninzi izazinzulu yaseMelika ukuthatha isiphumo inyaniso Leffera kambisisa amanxeba yerhafu kuyimfuneko. inikeza abameli theory ukubona phakathi unobangela irhafu kwamaxabiso aphezulu akucingeleki, kunye imiqathango engqongqo ye ukuhlawula iirhafu kunye nemirhumo.

Nokuba kuqoqosho Russian ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinxulumene izinga werhafu? Ukuze uphendule lo mbuzo uyakwazi ngqondweni zonke kwengeniso ngqo uze ngqo irhafu njengoko avareji yezinga ethile irhafu liphindaphindwe GDP, esebenzisa iindlela ezoqoqosho kunye zemathematika uhlalutyo.

Ekumiseleni ukuba unxulumano phakathi kwezi iirhafu kunye indeksi yamaxabiso abathengi (CPI), yajika ukuba ifuthe ngqo kwi kwamaxabiso zibonelela irhafu ngqo phakathi kwamazinga zabo kunye Dynamics kwamaxabiso phantse akukho ukulibaziseka kwithuba lokuphumla (ukungavumelani liphezulu iwela ixesha ngenyanga). Ngelo xesha, isabelo-avareji zerhafu ngqo kwi-GDP, imeko yezoqoqosho nto leyo edla isukile ngumvelisi kubathengi, ezidityanisiweyo zingqamene ngaphantsi ngokusondeleyo izinga lokwenyuka kwamaxabiso.

Le meko ibonisa ukuba iimfuno iirhafu ngqo kunye enzala negalelo kakhulu ngokukhawuleza kumaxabiso ngaphezu utshintsho kwirhafu ngqo, kodwa ke ngenxa yokuba ezinye utshintsho kanye ingqikelelo irhafu kunye nemali. Noko ke, ngokusondela ubuhlobo ngeke phezulu ngokwaneleyo phakathi kwabo. Ngoko ke, ngokuthe ngqo, ngokungathanga ngqo ngokwanda irhafu,, engagqibekanga kuphela abakhwetha kwamaxabiso, indima ebalulekileyo apha iyaqhubeka ukudlala ezibizayo amacandelo amazwe kunye nezinye izinto eziyimfuneko ukuze kwicandelo lemveliso yesizwe.

Makhe siye emva ebalulekileyo thiyori ubudlelwane phakathi izindululo imali, utyalo-mali kunye nokwehla kwezoqoqosho. Ukunqongophala lokonga isizathu esiyintloko kubonakala ukuba ekunqandeni utyalo-mali. Khangela le ndawo theory lijongana kunokwenzeka kucazululo ngokusondela uqhagamshelwano phakathi kwe-avareji izinga yengeniso yerhafu ngqo kunye neqondo inzuzo yemveliso zithengiswe. Njengomgaqo, oku kuxhomekeka iphantsi kakhulu. Le meko ifana ne ngokusondela Uxhulumaniso isabelo irhafu ngqo kwi-GDP kwaye umgangatho inzuzo kangangexesha elithile. Apha, engenaxabiso kuba ngawona ezithile iqatshelwe ngokomlinganiselo Ngokufanayo, ngamanye ubukhulu ubungakanani yerhafu ngqo, lilikhulu inqanaba inzuzo.

Loo meko wadala apho ingcamango classical yokuqokelela irhafu yaye ezinye iinguqu, kwaye umthwalo werhafu ngokuzenzekelayo kudluliselwa kubatheng ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngokolungelelwano njengoko iindleko ukwanda iindleko zemveliso. Oku kubonisa uhlahlelo unxulumano ezongezelelweyo kunye ngokusondela uqhagamshelwano phakathi kwenqanaba iindleko engange nganye kunye neqondo yengeniso irhafu GDP imali engange.

Ngokufutshane, impembelelo irhafu ukusebenza yemveliso kazwelonke kufuna ingqalelo ekhethekileyo. Eqhelekileyo kufuneka iqatshelwe njenge inkqubo yerhafu, baqonde iirhafu kunye nemirhumo, apho akukho miqobo nokwabiwa kakuhle kwezibonelelo.

Noko ke, uphando imeko yangoku nkqubo werhafu kuqinisekisa okulandelayo:

a) indima ephambili nesizukulwana ngqo iirhafu kwamaxabiso iindleko, kungoko abathintela imveliso;

b) nefuthe ayinamsebenzi phezu amazinga ngempumelelo yerhafu ngqo;

ukuxhomekeka Low phakathi izikhombisi zoqoqosho eziphambili - irhafu kunye ubuyele imali, nto leyo umgaqo zakhiwa zonke imodeli-Western abaphengululi irhafu eyaziwa - ikuvumela ukuba bafikelele kwizigqibo malunga nkcukacha zenkqubo utshintsho kweli lizwe kunye kwawo nawuphi na amalinge nokuzikhuphela ngqo kuqoqosho lwasekhaya.