Ukungaqiniseki nobungozi ekwenziweni kwezigqibo

ulawulo Enterprise, ngokunjalo, umzekelo, urhulumente ingxaki wendalo yezentlalo noqoqosho, enokwenziwa kuthathelwa ingqalelo ukungaqiniseki efanelekileyo kunye neengozi. Yintoni Okukodwa wabo? abanako ibalwe njani?

Yintoni na le nto yokungaqiniseki kunye nobungozi?

Kuqala kwinto zonke, cinga ingqiqo kwengozi kunye nokungaqiniseki, indlela Inokuchazwa le migomo kwiimeko ezahlukeneyo.

Abasemngciphekweni kuqondwa ngenene ingenzeka lomsitho ezibi okanye engathandekiyo. Ngokomzekelo, xa kufikwa kwishishini, kusenokuba inguqu kwiimeko zemarike, ukuze iziphumo zemisebenzi kuqoqosho lweshishini iya kukhwelela kude kangangoko.

Phantsi ukungaqiniseki ibhekisa ekungakwazini ukuqikelela ethembekileyo kokuvela lwesiganeko, nokuba ingathatyathwa ezinqwenelekayo ngayo. Kodwa umthetho, ukungaqiniseki kunye neengozi kuchaziwe kumxholo iimeko ezimbi. Imeko reverse - xa akunakwenzeka ukuba ukuqikelela ukubonakala izinto ezintle, akufane waqonda njengoko ngezwi elingaqondakaliyo, ngenxa yokuba kule meko akukho mfuneko ukumisela amacebo ukuphendula imiba efanelekileyo. Nangona phantsi nemiboniso ezingalunganga ezifana amaqhinga kuvame ezifunekayo. Oku kungenxa yokuba izigqibo ezibalulekileyo zingenziwa phantsi kweemeko yokungaqiniseki umngcipheko - kwezoqoqosho, zezopolitiko. Makhe sifunde indlela apho oku kunokuphunyezwa ngaphezulu.

Indlela yokunciphisa ukungaqiniseki nobungozi?

Ukwamkelwa yezigqibo ezithile kwindawo esibonakala ukungaqiniseki nomngcipheko, ikhutshwa phandle ukusetyenziswa iikhonsepthi zokunciphisa iimpazamo okanye imiboniso ezahlukeneyo ezingafunekiyo. Le ndlela ngempumelelo ezahlukahlukeneyo.

Ukungaqiniseki kunye nobungozi kwiinkalo ezininzi zobomi zanamhlanje. Iindlela asetyenziswa xa kuyimfuneko ukunciphisa iimpazamo abo okanye ezinye izenzo ekunokuthi kusekelwe kulo:

- ekuchongweni yeemeko ezizinzileyo okungaphazamisa le meko;

- kucazululo kwezibonelelo kunye nezixhobo kwindawo yokulahla umntu owenza izigqibo;

- by definition okwethutyana kunye nezinto ezingazinzanga ukuba kungahle kuchaphazele le meko, kodwa oku kunokwenzeka kuphela kwiimeko ezithile (ukuba ufuna kwakhona ukuba ezichongiweyo).

Phakathi kwiindawo apho iingqiqo ezahlukeneyo ezifunwa kakhulu - kulawulo. Kukho imbono yokuba ukungaqiniseki kwimeko ulawulo loshishino - ulawulo lomngcipheko, omnye engundoqo. Apha sifumana, ngoko omnye ukhetho ukucaciswa kota uphononongwayo. Kwicandelo le ingqiqo ulawulo, apho sifunda kakuhle imingcipheko ezahlukeneyo ngendlela eqhelekileyo. Ngoko ke kubalulekile kuqala ukuhlola indlela apho ukungaqiniseki kunye nomngcipheko zithathelwa ingqalelo isigqibo izisombululo kulawulo ngenxa lweshishini.

kulawulo lweshishini phantsi ukungaqiniseki kunye nobungozi

Kushishino, le ndlela ilandelayo eqhelekileyo ukoyisa imiphumo kunokwenzeka negative zokusombulula iingxaki ezahlukahlukeneyo.

Kuqala kwinto zonke, abaphathi ukujonga uluhlu bezinto oziphatha wabonakalisa ukungaqiniseki nengozi. Kusenokuba, umzekelo, ixabiso lemakethi iimpahla okanye iinkonzo ezithengiswa. Xa amaxabiso free kunye nenqanaba eliphezulu kukhuphiswano unokuba yingxaki kakhulu ngokukodwa ukuchaza indlela yayo. Ibhaqa ukwenzeka lwengozi ukungaqiniseki ngokoMthetho ukulindela yengeniso siqinile. Ixabiso layo libe zaneleyo ngenxa ukuwa kwamaxabiso ukuhlangabezana neemfanelo zalo, okanye, umzekelo, ukusombulula iingxaki ezinxulumene kukunyuswa brand.

Ngenxa yoko, ukunyuka ngokungalindelekanga elibukhali kwamaxabiso kungakhokelela zemali yi isixa ngokugqithiseleyo umholo igcinwe. Nguwuphi na enye indlela - kwi nemiba awayecwangcisiwe yemali - yolawulo iya esityalwe langoku lwesityalo kunye nezixhobo okanye nophuhliso iimarike ezintsha.

Emva into luphawulwa yokungaqiniseki umngcipheko ngokubhekiselele kuphuhliso loshishino, ezichongiweyo, umsebenzi uyaqhubeka ukujonga neemeko eziphembelela yokuziphatha kwento. Ezi isenokuba amanani abonisa yesayizi yemakethi kunye nohlobo ukukhula amashishini ezi zinto icandelo elithile. Kusenokwenzeka isifundo yeemeko zoqoqosho kunye nezopolitiko.

Ingcamango lomngcipheko kunye nokungaqiniseki, njengoko sibonile ngaphambili kweli nqaku, bangathungelana kunye neenkqubo kwiinkalo ezahlukeneyo. Ngoko ke, ukubala apha ithathwa njengokuba umthetho, kukho uluhlu olubanzi zinto. Umzekelo - abo ezinxulumene kwicandelo zemali. Makhe sifunde indlela apho sifunda iimeko yokungaqiniseki ubungozi izigqibo malunga imicimbi eyahlukeneyo malini.

Imiba yokungaqiniseki nomngcipheko kwicandelo zemali

Ngaphezu sibonile ukuba abaphathi lweshishini, ukuphuhlisa algorithm ekwenzeni izigqibo zolawulo, uthabathe kuqala ingqalelo into, leyo kubalulwa ukungaqiniseki nomngcipheko, emva - ukuqaphela izinto ezibonakalisa ngenene ingenzeka yeemeko bakwazi ukusebenza phantsi kwayo.

Kunjalo kungenziwa ngethuba zokusombulula iingxaki ezinxulumene nolawulo lwemali. Kummandla wolawulo isivumelwano into, leyo kuphenjelelwa ukungaqiniseki (umngcipheko - ethile imeko wayo), kubalulekile kakhulu amaninzi amandla ukuthengwa eyinkunzi. Ngokuxhomekeka kwabo okanye ezinye iimeko, oko linokwanda okanye linciphe. Umzekelo, ngenxa emali kwezoqoqosho karhulumente, izinga lotshintshiselwano umahluko kwi kohlolo lwemali kazwelonke. Ntoleyo, ke, ixhomekeke kwiinkqubo zoqoqosho nezopolitiko.

Ngoko ke, kummandla izigqibo ezinxulumene nolawulo, amanqanaba ukungaqiniseki (umngcipheko - njengendlela zabucala, ngoko kwakhona, kusenokuba) angamelwa kumanqanaba ahlukeneyo.

Okokuqala, kwinqanaba kwezoqoqosho (umzekelo ukukhula GDP, macro balance yorhwebo, inflation), kwaye okwesibini, izalathisi ezithile zemali (njengento ukhetho, imali kazwelonke). omabini amanqanaba ezenza ukuba ukumisela kuba yintoni na amandla okuthenga eyinkunzi.

Ukuchaza into, esibonakala ukungaqiniseki nomngcipheko, kwakunye uphawula imiba ebachaphazelayo, kufuneka asebenzise indlela isicelo ngayo eso sigqibo. Umzekelo - ezenziwe abaphathi inkampani zemali okanye neengcali. Ukuze wenze oku, kukho iqela leendlela. Phakathi zixhaphakileyo - ukusetyenziswa izisombululo matrix. Siza kufunda ngayo ngokweenkcukacha.

Matrix njengesixhobo oyikhethileyo kwezigqibo phantsi kweemeko lomngcipheko kunye nokungaqiniseki

Le nqubo ku Umbuzo Lubonakala nsimbi kuqala. Kuyinto kangangoko ukuba izigqibo malunga iiprojekthi, obubonakala ngokuba yincwadi evuliweyo iingozi kwezoqoqosho kunye nokungaqiniseki, yaye ngoko esebenzayo yolawulo.

izisombululo Matrix ibandakanya lokukhetha enye okanye ngaphezulu kuzo ngokusekelwe okuba ubuninzi sesichengeni imiba into chain. Ingaba ikhethiwe, ngoko isisombululo esisiseko - ibalwa iseti zinto, kwaye ukuba ngaba umsebenzi (okanye, Kwelinye icala, kuza kuba ezifanelekileyo), ngoko ke indlela eyahlukileyo sikhethwe. Yeyiphi ibandakanya ukubhentsiswa injongosenzi sele nezinye izinto.

Ukuba isisombululo yesibini iya kuba ngaphantsi ivale, oku kulandelayo kuyasebenza, njalo njalo, de ityala liza ukhetho yendlela, iziphumo ubuncinane ezinqwenelekayo, kodwa ukunikela. Formation kuluhlu kwezisombululo - ukusuka iphumelelayo ubuncinane olusebenzayo, enokwenziwa ukusetyenziswa kweendlela zezibalo. Ngokomzekelo, kuqikelelwa unikezelo ulungelelwaniso impendulo Igrafu amathuba into elinikiweyo.

Iimeko yokungaqiniseki kunye nobungozi kunokwenzeka isondlo ukubala usebenzisa iindlela kwithiyori lilonke. Ingakumbi ukuba kulahlwe umntu inxaxheba kulo, njengamanani ummeli ngokwaneleyo. Ukuziqhelisa, uhlalutyo ezoqoqosho kunye nemali kwasekwa iqela elikhulu iinqobo ngokungqinelana leyo yenziwe ukufumanisa amathuba yeemeko ezithile kwenze ukungaqiniseki kunye nobungozi. Iza kuba luncedo ukuba sihlolisise ezinye zezi zolwimi ngokunzulu.

Iikhrayitheriya isigqibo okuba yokungaqiniseki analysis kunye nobungozi

Kwenzeke nje udidi zemathematika, ngokuqhelekileyo wavakalisa njengepesenti. Ngokuqhelekileyo, akukho ixabiso engekatshati, Ukuba kwisininzi yalo - ngokwesiseko yintoni na iimeko kuvusa imiba kwakheka. Kubonakala ukuba kuthathelwa ingqalelo kunokwenzeka eziliqela, yaye bawadibanise yi-100%.

Owona bemfuno zokuvavanya amathuba kuvusa yeemeko ezithile kuthathwa njongo. Kufuneka sixhaswe:

- ubungqina bokuba iindlela ezisebenzayo zemathematika;

- iziphumo zohlalutyo statistical of ubeka imali ebonakalayo data.

Mahle - ukuba zombini isixhobo yesazisi zizibakala isicelo. Kodwa practice, kwimeko enjalo ke kakhulu inqabile. Njengoko umthetho, iingozi kwezoqoqosho kunye nokungaqiniseki zibalwa xa unayo ukufikelela iseti umthamo data amancinci kakhulu. Oku kusengqiqweni: ukuba zonke iinkampani waba ukufikelela efanayo ingcaciso efanelekileyo, hayi kuba akukho ukhuphiswano phakathi kwabo, kwaye kananjalo oko kwakuya ngayo isantya sophuhliso loqoqosho.

Ngoko ke, ugxininiso ekuhlalutyeni imingcipheko kwezoqoqosho kunye namashishini nokungaqiniseki basoloko ukwenza kwi inkalo nokungokwezibalo ukubala kwenzeke. Iindlela nobunzima kakhulu iya kuba inkampani efanelekileyo, inkampani uya kuba ukukhuphisana kurhwebo. ngoko Cinga, ngeendlela ezinokuthi kumiselwa amathuba iimeko ukubunjwa ngenxa kuvusa imiba yokuziphatha bezinto apho kusenokubakho imeko ukungaqiniseki (umngcipheko - njengoko kwimeko ethile ngayo).

Iindlela zokubona okuba

Count linokuba kungaba:

- ngokuhlalutya iimeko ezithile (umz; xa omnye kuphela iziganeko ezibini kunokwenzeka kunye amathuba uphezulu kukho: itosi ezinkozo iwela iintloko okanye imisila);

- esebenzisa lonikezelo amathuba (isekelwe kwiisampuli kwenkcazelo yembali okanye analysis);

- esebenzisa ukuhlaziywa isazi ngemizekelo - kunye ukubandakanyeka iingcali ezinamava abakwaziyo ukuhlola izinto eziphembelela indlela yokuziphatha kwento.

Ekubeni licacise iindlela amathuba calculation ngaphakathi yokungaqiniseki zokubala kunye neengozi nga phambili kwinkcaza kuyo. Makhe sifunde indlela apho le ngxaki ingasombululwa.

Indlela ukufumanisa amathuba iziganeko Akwaziwa practice?

definition Practical of amathuba kuvusa into echaphazela into leyo luphawulwa kukungaqiniseki umngcipheko luqala kuqulunqo wokulindelwe ezithile into ahambelanayo. Ukuba unjalo amandla ukuthengwa eyinkunzi ngokunxulumene ekukhuleni kwayo kungalindeleka, nokugcina enye okanye ukwehla.

Iinjongo ze-mali oya kulo mzekelo unokuba, umzekelo:

- mali eyinkunzi isehla okuthenga uyilawulayo yotshintsho asethi ezisisigxina;

- uluhlu ngokusekelwe mali kunye ezizinzileyo okanye ekhulayo amandla ukuthengwa imithamo ezongezelelweyo umholo igcinwe.

Masithi ukuba yemali ulindele likomkhulu - ngenxa yezizathu ukwenyuka kwamaxabiso - nangoku ukunciphisa amandla awo okuthenga, kangangokuba kuya kufuneka imali kwi yotshintsho asethi ezisisigxina. Ngoko ke, ingozi (ukungaqiniseki) kule meko kukuba isixa esikhulu eyinkunzi ngotyalomali asethi elulwelo, ngelixa amandla alo nasekuthengeni unako, ngokwahlukileyo koko bekulindelekile, ikhule. Ngenxa yoko - inkampani liya kufumana umvuzo ngaphantsi igcinwe. kontanga yayo, yena, Ungasebenzisa ikomkhulu labo ngokuyimpumelelo.

Kokuba kuchaziwe okulindeleke malunga into, esibonakala ukungaqiniseki nomngcipheko, kuyimfuneko ukuhlola zizo zonke iimpawu eziphembelela imo into ahambelanayo. Ezi kungaba:

- Iimpawu zoqoqosho State (kubandakanywa ezo - izinga lokwenyuka kwamaxabiso lohlobo lwemali kazwelonke, nto leyo esele zikhankanywe apha ngentla);

- imeko emarikeni bafune izinto ekrwada kunye eyinkunzi (ebalwayo kwixabiso kwamandla ukuthengwa eyinkunzi corporate);

- imbuyekezo kwi asethi tshintshayo (olumisela amathuba Ukuphuculwa ezingahambisekiyo zenkampani).

Ngaphezu koko, usebenzisa iindlela zezibalo, siqinise ubala bahlupheka kakhulu azinampembelelo into yeemeko ezahlukeneyo, ngoko amathuba efumanise ukuba ngamnye kubo.

Ngoko ke, usenokufumanisa ukuba isambuku ezinkulu nkampani bukaThixo eyachithwayo kuthengwa izinto ekrwada kunye nemali, ngoxa ubukhulu becala ukuba kwamanye amazwe. Ngenxa yoko, ukwanda okanye ukuncipha Amandla okuthenga imali iya kuxhomekeka isakhono lombutho, kuqala kwiinto zonke, ukuba Dynamics imali kazwelonke, kwaye ubukhulu ongaphantsi ukusuka izinga lokonyuka kwamaxabiso esemthethweni.

Imithombo yokungaqiniseki (ubungozi) kulo mzekelo kuya enemo soqoqosho. Ngenxa yoko, izinga lwemali exchange yesizwe luchaphazela ikakhulu ibhalansi intlawulo kurhulumente, umlinganiselo-asethi namatyala, umgangatho ityala likarhulumente, isixa unaniso usebenzise imali yeloo kwindawo zokuhlala kunye nabathengisi abavela kwamanye amazwe.

Ngenxa yoko, amathuba iziganeko nale - ukwanda, yolondolozo yase ixabiso esitalini okanye ukuthenga amandla asezantsi capital ibalwa ngokuchonga izinto eziphambili ezichaphazela ehambelana neemeko definition into kwilori ezi zinto, kwaye linokuba yabo ivela (nto leyo, ixhomekeke zimeko enye level - kulo mzekelo, macro-economic).

Ukwenza izigqibo ezisekelwe kubungozi

Ngoko safunda nokuba iqhutywa njani yokubala amathuba kukuvela kweemeko kwanokusebenza ekusetyenzwa phantsi kwazo zinefuthe imo into, esibonakala ukungaqiniseki nengozi. Kwakhona kuza kuba luncedo ukuba ukuhlola ngakumbi indlela apho unako ukwenza izigqibo zayo phantsi kweemeko ukungaqiniseki kunye nobungozi.

Iingcali zale mihla ziye zachongwa uluhlu zilandelayo zokugweba, leyo kukhokelwa sikhokelo imisebenzi enjalo:

- amathuba lokugcina ukusebenza kulindeleke;

- amathuba ngokuphumeza amaxabiso aphezulu kakhulu ephantsi parameters phantsi ingqalelo;

- izinga kwiintsali phakathi kulindeleke, ubuncinane kunye bexabiso.

Isibaluli lokuqala kubandakanya ngokukhetha izisombululo, ukuphunyezwa leyo enokukhokelela ukuba umphumo kangangoko - umzekelo, malunga nomba capital investment ekuwuvuleni efektri kwimveliso TV e-China.

inkqubo yomfundi elindelekileyo kulo mzekelo unokusekelwa kwenkcazelo yembali-manani okanye ukubalwa (kodwa isekelwe, kwakhona, phezu amava okusebenza leengcali abathi). Umzekelo, abaphathi inokuba ulwazi mveliso nokwenza inzuzo release TV eTshayina kwi-avareji malunga ne-20%. Ngoko ke, lokuvula mveliso siqu, banelungelo lokulindela ukuba isalathisi efanayo ukusebenza-mali eyinkunzi.

Kwelinye icala, ukuba bazazi Kwiimeko apho omnye okanye elinye inkampani ukufika la manani, kwaye, kananjalo, abancedi lutho. Ngoko ke, kuya kufuneka abaphathi ukuqwalasela imeko ibe kudini zero okanye embi.

Noko ke, bezimali nazo ingxelo ukuba ezinye iinkampani ikwazile ukuphumeza ukusebenza ngendlela lotyalo-mveliso yaseTshayina kwi ubukhulu ka-70%. Ukuphumeza lo mzobo ehambelana nayo kuthathelwa ingqalelo xa kusenziwa isigqibo.

Risk (ukungaqiniseki japan kulo mzekelo) xa ucinga into yokuba imali ukuvulwa mveliso kwi PRC banokuba kukuvela kweemeko kushiya imiba echaphazela kakubi into - level inzuzo. Ezo zinto nto leyo enokukhokelela ekubeni inani ahambelanayo iya kuba mibi. Nakuba kunjalo, iziphumo ezahlukeneyo kuba ukungaqiniseki kunye nokufikelela inzuzo ye-70%, oko kukuthi amanani ezithe ngaphambili kwazuzwa kwezinye zoshishino.

Kwimeko kratya negative Waboniswa, ethetha kakhulu,-10% lemizi-mveliso zivulele eTshayina, izinga 70% baphumelela-5%, njengoko kulindeleke - 20% - Yabhalwa kwiziphumo 85% ye-mveliso, abaphathi ngokufanelekileyo ingathatha HIV isigqibo malunga imali xa kuvulwa lwesityalo lokuveliswa TV e China.

Ukuba esima elibi kwi ngokwesiseko data ekhoyo iza kwi-30% lemizi-mveliso, abaphathi:

- wabalahla ingcamango ukutyala mveliso;

- ukuhlalutya izinto ukuba indlal ukusebenza utyalo eqhelekileyo ezifana kwimveliso kamabonakude.

Kwimeko yesibini, izigqibo ukungaqiniseki kunye nolawulo lomngcipheko ziya kuhlaziywa ngokusekelwe kwisethi entsha iinqobo kwinkalo ezilindelekileyo kweerhafu elungileyo, kwelona qondo. Umzekelo, ukuba bafunda Dynamics amaxabiso kusithenga amacandelo - njengomnye wemiba yonke inzuzo. Okanye - izalathi si zokunikwa kwemfuno kuloo kwimarike, eyamnika ekhutshwe kwi-mveliso kwi TV eTshayina.

isishwankathelo

Ngoko ke, siye sagqiba kuhlobo iziganeko ezifana ukungaqiniseki kunye lomngcipheko kweli shishini. Bayakwazi zikhona iindidi zezinto. Kwicandelo loshishino ntonje amandla ukuthengwa eyinkunzi, inzuzo, ixabiso abo okanye ezinye amaxabiso asethi.

Risk amaninzi ingqalelo ngabaphandi nje ityala okhethekileyo ukungaqiniseki. Oku kuveza amathuba ekuphumezeni isiphumo engathandekiyo okanye awunayo nawuphi na umsebenzi.

Lomngcipheko kunye nokungaqiniseki - iikhonsepthi ngokusondeleyo ezinxulumene elithi "amathuba", ezinxulumene kwimathematika. Siyafana yeseti iindlela ezikuvumela ukuba ubale ukuba kokulindelekileyo umphathi luyathetheleleka xa kufikwa ishishini, okanye omnye umntu onomdla ngokuphathelele kwizinto ezichaphazela kukungaqiniseki kunye nobungozi kulawulo ishishini.