Lokwanda kwabantu

Inani kunye olukhutshelweyo yabemi yenye yeempawu engundoqo inqanaba kubomi. La magama abonisa iqondo yokuhlaziywa izizukulwana zabantu. Veliswa yabemi kusoloko kubonwa indibaniselwano iindidi ezintathu intshukumo labemi: lomhlaba, zendalo kunye nezentlalo.

Ukuqwalasela inkqubo efana uhlaziyo izizukulwana, kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukubaluleka kwayo ekuphuhliseni uluntu. Ngokutsho ababhali abaninzi, andisa zabemi sphere eyahlukileyo koqobo lwentlalo. Njengoko inkqubo elizimeleyo kakhulu, nokuhlaziywa kwizizukulwana kwenzeka nefuthe kakhulu kwezinye iinkalo zobomi ekuhlaleni. Ngelo xesha linye enomfanekiso abemi inempembelelo ebalulekileyo kwezinye iinkalo zobomi. Ngenxa yale intsebenziswano wambumba iimfuno injongo kuzo zonke iinkqubo ezinxulumene nobomi uluntu.

ukuzala labantu uthathwa isenzeko probabilistic. Yenza i ubunzima neengozi ekwanti kunye random - ukusweleka kunye nokuzalwa. Ukusoloko yabemi inika ekulondolozweni iimeko ezisisiseko phantsi apho intsebenziswano kunye nokusingqongileyo lwangaphandle. Kuyenzeka, ngokutsho iingcali, kwindawo ethile, hayi randomness ukuhamba yezibalo. Oku, sisiphumo oluqhubekayo iinkqubo zolawulo kwinkqubo yezibalo. Bona (iinkqubo) ezenziwa indalo. Enkosi kubo, kufikelelwe ukuhlaziywa rhoqo kwamanani izityalo kunye nezilwanyana, kwakunye uzinzo kuthelekiswa yabemi.

Emva kokuba ukuvela abantu kwinkqubo yolawulo lwe utshintsho ubunjani kwi yokuzala yabemi. Ukususela kulaa mzuzu ukuya phambili iindlela zebhayoloji ulawulo yokuzala kwafakwa zentlalo. Formation of a ngokunxulumene ezinzile zezentlalo ulondolozo kunye nokuveliswa ubomi bomntu sele kwavusa ukuvela yokuzala njengenkqubo determinacy lwentlalo. Kakade ke, oku akuthethi ukuba shwaka ukulinganiselwa ezithile ngokwedemografi, zebhayoloji njongo, ngokungqinelana apho inkqubo abantu yokuphindela ulawulo loluntu.

A umlinganiselo ubuninzi yokuzala idibanisa urhulumente kwesantya sokuchuma kubonakala umsebenzi f ahambelanayo (x) kunye nokufa, kubonakala umsebenzi ukusinda l (x). X kule misebenzi - ubudala. Ibinzana ngokubanzi lwemisebenzi bathi kukho umlinganiselo gross (R) yokuzala, kwakunye e0 sokuphila. Kulo mzekelo, kukho lula ezithile akuvumelekanga, nto leyo ehambisana nesibakala sokuba f indices (x) kunye l (x) wakhiwe ngendlela ecacisiweyo R e0, apho kungekho kubuya ku-kuphela.

Indlela yokuzala f (x) kunye l (x) ukuba zithe zadala iparameters. La manani ifomu ngokucacileyo iqala iparameters C (x) (isakhiwo ubudala abemi) kunye nomlinganiselo yokwandisa inani - rate net R0 kunye nokukhula zendalo okwenyaniso rate r. Ezi zikhombisi ezimbini zikho ezinye utshintsho ngokunxulumene neeyunithi ixesha ezahlukeneyo. Kwimeko yokuqala, isizukulwana ubude T, kwaye le yesibini - ixesha umlinganiselo ikhalenda yesiqhelo (idla ngonyaka). Ngaloo ndlela, a r umlinganiselo = lnR0 / T.

Kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba eRashiya ziphawulwe umahluko eziphawulwe zobuhlanga zommandla kwi yokuzala yabemi.

Russia nokukotshwa labemi kwisiqingatha sesibini senkulungwane ye-19 waphawulwa izinga ngokuzalwa eliphezulu kunye nokufa. Kweli xesha eyandulela ezala waqalisa ukwehla ngokukhawuleza kwimimandla kwezoqoqosho.