Kuza kwenzeka ntoni oyile kunye engange emva summit e Doha?

Kumaxesha Soviet, kubemi zesiqhelo amaxabiso yeoli ihlabathi baba nomdla, baye okunye okukhathaza ngokwaneleyo, kodwa ngoku iye yaba isihloko nditsho phakathi umhlalaphansi. Fall iikowuteshini hydrocarbon waziva ebhegini yam yonke into ukusuka billionaires kubasebenzi eziqhelekileyo, ngubani zisetyenziswa ukuba bachithe iiholide zabo iiholide amazwe, ezibe ixesha elide kakhulu ezifikelelekayo. Ngokuchasene dollar buthathaka engange, kwaye oku kuye akonwabanga, abantu ngokubanzi. Unobangela kukwehla imeko yezoqoqosho, abanye bona ukwayo Western ebekwe emva kokuba nokudliwa eCrimea, kodwa abahlalutyi bathi ukuba ngakumbi, kwaye kakhulu ngakumbi, ezo iinkqubo ezingcolileyo ezibangelwa ukuwa kwamaxabiso e-oli. Ngoko ke oko kuxhomekeke athini amanyathelo athathiweyo ukuphucula kuyo?

Kutheni wawa ioli?

Ioli - imveliso kunye nexabiso layo ixhomekeke unikezelo kunye nemfuno. Kuye wabonisa ukuba kukho impazamo statistical eyenziwe stockbrokers, kwaye kwakugcwele kuma imiqulu ekrwada kwi yale mithi. Ngamanye amazwi, zombini abavelisi kunye nabathengi babecinga ukuba neoli ngaphezulu kakhulu kunokuba ngokwenene, yaye yathatha ixesha elide. Kubonakala, oko ukuthatha ingqalelo le Bill of nyaniso, ukuba izilungiso, yaye zonke ziya kweyela ndawo. Inxalenye oko kwenzekayo, ixabiso waqalisa avuke kwinqanaba $ 29 umphanda, kodwa owayesakuba ngaphezu kwekhulu yaye abazange bayifumane ukuhlala kule nombolo ezimbini ezinesiqingatha izihlandlo ngaphantsi, ngenxa yesizathu esibalulekileyo. Okokuqala, imarike omkhulu onjalo, njengokuba ezizizembiwa, egalelwe kanye ngenxa yobukhulu bawo, kwaye okwesibini, imfuno kuhlala kuphantsi kakhulu, kodwa unikezelo landa emva okukunyusa kwezohlwayo ne Iran. Amazwe ezivelisa ioli baqalisa ukucinga iinzame ulungelelwaniso, kufanele kuqatshelwe ukuba kwisikhundla eRussia kwanezincomekayo phakathi kwabo.

amafutha Hayibo

Indlela yokuba nempembelelo kwi amaxabiso mbono ilula kakhulu. Ukuba awukwazi kwandisa imfuno, yaye emkhenkceni ngenxa yokwehla msebenzi ishishini ehlabathini, ingakumbi e-Latin America, yenye kuphela - ngumkhenkce imithamo yemveliso. Nangona incwadi kunokwenzeka amanyathelo sinjalo, ukuze kufikelelwe isiphumo kwafumaniseka ukuba ibe nzima kunokuba kulindelwe. Ixabiso oli uya kuvuka ukuba uJack up ukuba imveliso yayo lifinyele, kodwa hayi kweli lizwe, yaye phantse zonke ngaxeshanye. Kule ilahleko engaphephekiyo kwexesha ngethuba lwemali olungenayo lifinyele. Yaye ukuba amazwe OPEC, ngokwenkcazelo, bafuna ukwenza umgaqo-nkqubo yokudityaniswa akavumelani phakathi kwabo, iimeko apho simemo kwakhona kwaye Libya, Iraq, kwaye ngoku Iran, esi sivumelwano kuyingxaki kakhulu. Kulo mba, elowo ngokwakhe kwaye ufuna 'Wamkhwelisa ngokucinezela abanye. " Vumela umntu kunciphisa ehlupheka yemveliso akafumani nzuzo, kunye nganye amazwe lizinikele ukuba balahlekelwe kwaye sivuyele iziqhamo iinzame zabanye. Oku ke kwenzeka ixesha elide, kwaye lo mdlalo embhoxo hayibo kunye eBluff yakhe. Saudi Arabia wabonisa ukungakhathali epheleleyo, ebonisa ukuba ixabiso elisezantsi kwamkelekile kakhulu, kwaye amaMelika ilahlwe kwimarike zonke amaqashiso ezintsha impahla. Lo mbuzo kuphela ukuphila ixesha elide ngaphezu ugqatso. Iinkampani ezininzi zawa ephuma umdlalo, ngoxa abanye kunciphise imveliso, abanye baye wasebenza kwi negative. Owanelisayo ayenzekanga xesha.

ingxaki Iranian

NgoFebruwari 2016 iinkampani zemigodi of Saudi Arabia, eRashiya, Venezuela kunye Qatar, ekugqibeleni ndagqiba ukuseka umqobo ekukhuleni kwamaxabiso e-oyile. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, izigqibo yentshayelelo isithintelo kwemveliso kwinqanaba esenzeka ngoJanuwari kulo nyaka. Amaxwebhu le ndlela yokulinganisa ifanele ithathe indawo ngoAprili 17 kule ngqungquthela, nguye umthengisi inkulu hydrocarbon ehlabathini. Eyona ngxaki inkulu ethintela ngokusetyenziswa umlinganiselo ukuba isebenze kude kube ukwala Iran ukuba ukuxhasa yokufumana isisombululo esifanayo edityanisiweyo, apho yazinyaswa yi elinesibini isiqingatha kumazwe abachaphazelekayo ukuze bakuthathele ingqalelo. Emva iintetho yabanjwa phakathi uMphathiswa wezaMandla, ukuze bakuthathele ingqalelo uluntu ehlabathini Novak Saudi Oil UMphathiswa Ali al-Naimi zokusebenza waxelelwa ukuba mqobo yemveliso ziya kubanjwa kwanokuba Tehran uqhubeka sokumpompa ioli kangangoko ufuna.

amalungu "ebandayo"

Ngokutsho Novak, imveliso oyile engumkhenkce akakwazi elinesihlanu kuphela ithi sele wenza esi sigqibo, yaye naziphi na ezinye abanqwenela ukuxhasa inkqubo ejoliswe ekwandiseni amaxabiso raw materials aya kwamkeleka. Ngelo xesha nayiphi ukunyanzela okanye ukuwiswa kwezohlwayo kwicala OPEC kunye nabanye 'abajoyine "ngaphandle amazwe. imithombo eyakhiwe wathi emva kokuba le ngxelo Riyadh akusekho uthabathe semo akhawunti Iran, nangona ngaphambili edityaniswe ithuba yovalo kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo weli lizwe kwimveliso. Tehran ukuza kuthi ga wala ukuxhasa OPEC neRashiya, yaye unesizathu esihle - eminyaka uqoqosho lwesizwe zinciphe ukwayo, yaye ngoku ngenene ufuna ukuya kwinqanaba angaphambili hydrocarbon kumazwe angaphandle. Production e Iran ngenyanga edlulileyo uvukile 2.9 yezigidi. Imiphanda ku 3.2.

Umzabalazo phakathi kwezinto ezimbini

Le meko kunye nemfuno ioli Kusenzima kakhulu, ngokutsho OPEC, kuba okwangoku yezigidi kuphela 1.2 imiphanda ngosuku. Ngenxa yoko, kunzima ukulindela ukuba nkqu ngqungquthela e Doha kunye neziphumo zawo zibe nempembelelo ebalulekileyo kwi imeko lemarike, kwaye ixabiso uya kunyuka kabukhali, ukuba imfuno iwela mfutshane ubonelelo. Noko ke, ukuba enze into kwakusafuneka, ingakumbi ukuba ngenxa ukwehla kwingeniso imithamo yemveliso oyile US walile, kwaye ifuneka kancinane kodwa ndaya inene, zibe ukukhula. Market awasabela ngayo ixabiso ligqithe uphawu $ 44. Edlala nxamnye ukunyuka mkhuba kwi unikezelo Iranian kunye Iraq. Nguwuphi umntu uya kuba ngoku kunzima ukuqikelela lo mkhuba ezikhoyo.

Kuyanda ozilindele okanye ilindele impumelelo?

kuluhlu lwabadlali ehlabathini zisekelwe nje kuphela izibakala eziphathekayo, aya kuxhomekeka ubukhulu becala phezu kulindelekileyo. Le ngqungquthela ezayo Doha abachaphazelekayo i MICEX Russian kunye a th, bafika amaxabiso yangoku ubuninzi akambonanga ukususela ukuwa-2008 ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Ukomelezwa iqondo lonaniso engange nxamnye euro (ngaphantsi kwe 74 engange.) Yaye US dollar. Imali kazwelonke Russian iye yabonisa izinga lokukhula eliphezulu, ekhule phakathi kwamazwe asakhasayo. Ezi nguqu kaGawulayo kufuneka, ke, ukuba isimo okuhle ngokugqithiseleyo, ukuba zibangelwa yi ngeempawu, kodwa akukho impumelelo, ngoko indices, kwakunye khosi ukudlala umva.

Ukrainian lunee ntlobo ezine uqikelelo ingcali elifutshane elide

Imeko ngeziganeko ezizayo basenokuba ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo, kodwa eneneni isenokuba sisiphumo ezine kuphela, yaye zonke zixhomekeke kwisikhundla Iran. Eyona kungenzeka (35%) banethuba ukuxoxa ngaphandle Tehran kaThixo inkxaso cishe akukho mfuneko ukubonisa umgudu. Isiphumo oluphumeleyo: ioli kwi $ 45 umphanda "Brent" nganye, i-dollar 65 engange. Le ndlela yesibini - Iran ixhasa summit, kodwa wayecebe ukunyusa imveliso (amathuba-30%). Ixabiso yeoli ayiyi kuba enye, oko kukuthi, $ 45, okanye ngaphezulu, kwi $ 47, kwaye imali engange ivuke 64 dollar ngalinye. Isimo kunokwenzeka wesithathu, uyincopho welizwe akavumelani (amathuba "Savings Bank" yangaphambili,-20%). Kuya kuba kubi, i-dollar uza kuvuka ixabiso ukuya engange 75-78, ioli zizakuwela umva $ 30, lo gama ekubaleni abanethemba ukuya 35 15% ye amathuba eliqikelelwayo mzekelo nethemba, ukuba Iran uyayamkela olucetywayo imiqathango kunye umda nemveliso ukwandisa kwi-2,9 yezigidi. bar. ngosuku. Kulo mzekelo, sinokulindela ixabiso ku $ 47 okanye $ 50 engange liya komeleza ku 62-63 engange.

balindele Long-term

Ukucinga ukuba ngqungquthela Doha weza nto, akukho sizathu, kungenjalo kwakuza kufuneka ukuba amalungiselelo. Abahlaziyi "Savings" zibonisa ukuba umlinganiselo japan kulindeleke, ixabiso ngeoli zeerandi 42.5 umphanda ngo kwikota yesi-2, abangama-45 kweli-3 RD, yaye ekupheleni konyaka iya kufikelela 47,5 okanye 50. Ukuthintela ukukhula iya kuba ukuvuselelwa kwemveliso Argentina, Libya, Brazil kunye namanye amazwe apho icandelo le kancinci oknaye aqale kade. Ngu ekuqaleni kuka-2017 i-ngeranti dollar kuthelekelelwe kuluhlu engange 58-60 (yezoqoqosho oyintloko "BCS"). Engavumelani omnye umhlalutyi, Kuzmin ( "Renaissance Capital"), ulindele ukuba RUR / USD 65. Makhe sibone nguwuphi na kubo ilungile.